EU–UKRAINE TRADE DYNAMICS: CASE STUDY OF EXPORT PROSPECTS IN SELECTED EU ECONOMIES

Abstract

The article investigates recent developments in trade relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine, emphasising the impact of geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s military aggression. It focuses on analysing the dynamics of trade intensity and assessing export opportunities for Ukraine’s main EU trading partners. Using data from 2013 to 2023, the study applies the trade intensity index and export potential indicator to assess bilateral trade flows and uncover untapped opportunities. It highlights the transformative role of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) in fostering economic integration, despite challenges such as corruption and geopolitical instability. The findings confirmed that Ukraine’s trade intensity with the EU was higher than that of the EU with Ukraine during the analysed period. Additionally, in 2023, the export potential of EU countries to Ukraine was concentrated in high-value-added commodities, including machinery, motor vehicles, and pharmaceutical products. The analysis identified Poland and Bulgaria as countries with the highest trade intensity with Ukraine in 2022, while Germany showed the greatest untapped export potential in absolute terms.